Can Sergio Garcia Win The Masters?

The Masters Preview
1 April 2017

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Of course he can.

But let’s look at it in a bit more detail.

Here is a snapshot of Sergio’s record in major championships:sergio

The above is summarised as follows, with his Masters record highlighted in bold:

73 appearances (18 / 17 / 20 / 18 )
54 Cuts Made (13 / 15 / 16 / 11 )
22 Top Tens (3 / 5 / 10 / 4 )
12 Top Fives (1 / 3 / 5 / 3 )
4 Seconds (0 / 0 / 2 / 2 )
18 Missed Cuts (5 / 2 / 4 / 7 )
1 DQ (2007 USPGA)

The overall picture equates to 74% of cuts made, a 30% top ten finish rate, a 16% top five finish rate and a 5% return of second place finishes.

For The Masters, the record breaks down as eighteen appearances, with five missed cuts (28%) and three top ten finishes (17%), just one of which was a top five finish (T4 in 2004).

Of the four majors his record of making cuts at Augusta is third best (72% return), behind The Open Championship (80%) and the US Open (88%), with the PGA Championship trailing behind at 61% if you include 2007 (he made the cut but was disqualified after the third round for signing an incorrect scorecard).

In terms of top ten finishes, his record at Augusta of three from eighteen (17%) is the worst of the four majors, behind totals of four at the USPGA (22%), five at the US Open (29%) and an impressive ten at The Open Championship (50%). That’s right, Sergio has finished in the top ten of exactly half of Open Championships he has played in, but he has done so in a mere sixth of his Masters appearances.

Top five finishes do not read any better, again with the Masters lagging behind the rest, his sole top five finish coming in 2004, representing a 6% return (USPGA 17%, US Open 18%, The Open 25%). That’s right, in one of every four Open Championships contested Sergio has finished in the top five, but he has only done this once at Augusta.

The stats don’t tell the whole story. Even the overall stat of just four second place finishes out of 73 majors slightly belies the assumption of many that Sergio has come close and blown it on  multiple occasions. Perhaps you could say he has done this four times (at a rate of 5%) if you base it on second place finishes. Or perhaps you could say he has done it twelve times (at a rate of 16%) if you base it on top five finishes. It seems that Sergio has struggled less at the other majors than at Augusta, but does this mean he has no chance to win it? Well, measuring it solely on leaderboard positions is not necessarily the best way. For example, at the 2010 US Open Dustin Johnson was infamously leading the tournament by three shots going into the final round and finished tied for 8th. Rory McIlroy was infamously leading the 2011 Masters on the 10th tee on Sunday but ended up finishing tied 15th. Conversely, top five finishes do not always translate as having been in contention to win. The best example of this in recent times may be Erik Comption’s second place at the 2014 US Open, finishing eight shots behind runaway winner Kaymer. However you analyse it, what has frustrated Sergio fans as much as the near misses has been his failure to stay in contention and give himself more chances to win.

Garcia has missed more cuts at the USPGA than at The Masters but in terms of challenging on Sunday Augusta seems to be where Sergio has turned in the weakest results of the four majors over the years. To make the tie for fourth in 2004, his only top five, he was never in contention. He shot 66 on Sunday to shoot up the leaderboard from way back, but still finished six shots behind Mickelson. Some of the other results are worth noting, however. In 2002 he entered the final day four shots off the lead, but shot 75 to end up eight back of Tiger. After 36 holes in 2012 he was one shot off the lead, but he faded over the weekend with rounds of 75 and 71 for a T12 finish. A year later in 2013 he shot the joint low round 66 on Thursday, but dropped down the leaderboard with a 76 on Friday. Still not out of it, he needed a sub-70 round on Saturday, but a 73 left him with too much to do. He clawed his way back into the top ten with a 70 on Sunday but was never in contention.  Last year, 2016, Sergio was three shots off the lead going into the weekend, but shot a miserable 81 on Saturday. He has returned plenty of low rounds at Augusta, so I would not accept the view that his failure to contend down the stretch on Sundays is due to an issue with course suitability. Sergio has the game to score around Augusta, of that there is no doubt, it is just a question of whether he can sustain it over all four rounds and score a bit better on certain holes.

The popular assumption is that putting is a key issue. I am not so sure and will duly investigate. His average scores for the last two years do throw up some interesting general facts (note that Augusta played harder in 2016 than in 2015 so the two year average gives a nice spread):

  • Combined gross score +3. Final scores: 2015 (T17) -5; 2016 (T34) +8.
  • He has scored far worse on the front nine than on the back nine: +6 over the two years on the front, -3 on the back.
  • He has played five holes at +2 or worse over the two years (1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 18th).
  • He was +4 for the week on the 1st hole in 2016, his worst hole in 2015 or 2016.
  • He has played the par fives in -9, yet level par on the 13th.
  • He has played four holes under par over the period (2nd, 8th, 14th, 15th).
  • He parred the par three 12th all four days in 2016. His score around Amen Corner over the two years is +2.

The above suggests that if Sergio can brush up on the par threes and par fours (the 1st hole especially) and improve his return on the 13th and 18th holes, then he has a much better chance of challenging, albeit this is a simplistic assessment. My interim opinion remains that Sergio is slowly working out Augusta. I believe that The Masters 2017 is his best chance yet to win a major, purely because it is the next chance. He has been in that Butler Cabin before, in 1999 as the Low Amateur, and he will be there again!

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